Spatio-temporal characterization of seismicity and seismic hazard assessment of the Absheron peninsula (Azerbaijan). Contribution to seismic risk evaluation

Project leaders

Luciano Telesca, Gulam Babayev

Agreement

AZERBAIJAN - ANAS-not in force - Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences

Call

CNR/ANAS 2012-2013

Department

Earth and Environment

Thematic area

Earth system science and environmental technologies

Status of the project

New

Research proposal

The Absheron peninsula (Azerbaijan) lies in the south-eastern downwarping of the Greater Caucasus. Based on the past historical data, the Absheron peninsula is an active seismic area with considerable damage-potential for buildings and infrastructures. Furthermore, geologically most of the Absheron peninsula is covered with Quaternary sediments, which represent an additional factor for increased risk due to the local seismic amplification effects. Two main seismic zones exist in the Absheron peninsula that represent a hazard to Baku city: the first, located in the northern part of the peninsula causing intensity VIII in Baku with an average return period of 100 years; the second,   surrounding Absheron with a return period of 1000 years for intensity VIII in Baku. The fault system surrounding Baku city is complex. These faults represent the main hazard to the city. The mechanisms are strike-slip, normal and thrust faults. Moreover, the rapid population growth and increasing concentration of infrastructure in the urban areas especially due to rural migration, the  oil-extracting and oil-processing industry intensively developed in this seismically active region, and lack of public awareness regarding the earthquake hazard, significantly contribute to the increase of the seismic vulnerability of the Absheron peninsula and, in particular, Baku city. Therefore, the consequences of an expected earthquake disaster in this area would be of utmost severity.
Within this context, the project intends to perform a detailed study of the spatial and temporal distribution of seismicity of Absheron peninsula and give a contribution to the problem of estimation and prediction of the hazards, which has not found fully satisfactory solutions yet.
The project combines the expertises of the two involved institutions for the study of earthquake processes aiming at refining the existing level of understanding of dynamical mechanisms of seismicity, improving the knowledge about the dynamics of earthquakes, and contributing to seismic hazard assessment. These studies were never performed for the Azerbaijani territory so far.
The project is grounded in earth sciences, but has also a strong methodological component, and the cooperation between the involved institutions of CNR and ANAS, offers a real synergistic advantage of exchange of data, statistical/mathematical methodologies and, in general, all the know-how concerning earthquakes. Furthermore, the project will constitute the base of a solid scientific relationship that may be maintained with the joint participation in future projects. Each involved institution has a valuable level of expertise in different aspects of the seismic phenomenon: the Italian team has a strong expertise in the statistical analysis of time-space distribution of seismicity, and the Azerbaijani team has a relevant expertise in the seismic hazard, macro-seismic analysis of the seismicity of the Azerbaijan territory including Absheron peninsula. The project, thus, will constitute a platform to share and combine their knowledge.
In this project the Azerbaijani team will be essentially devoted to the seismic data storage, to study the seismo-tectonic and geologic settings, and to the seismic hazard assessment of Absheron peninsula. On the other hand, the Italian team will be more dedicated to analyse the seismic catalogue of the Absheron peninsula, using advanced and robust statistical methodologies and to characterize the seismic process from a dynamical point of view, by means of well assessed nonlinear techniques, like fractal, and other novel models, like non-extensive, with clear implications in the context of seismic hazard.
The intended activities include: a) Analysis of the seismicity of Absheron peninsula by using space-time clustering methodologies, based on fractals. b) Analysis of the non-extensive properties of the Absheron seismicity, following the recent findings in terms of magnitude distribution. c) Seismic hazard assessment of the Absheron area on the base of the up-to-date seismic recordings, and on the base of the results about the dynamics of earthquakes obtained in the previous activities (a and b).d) Exchange visits of scientists as required to enhance the collaborative activities and generate research outputs. e) Generation of research outputs. Both ongoing and final research results will be published in international journals and presented in conferences. f) Methodological and technological support for possible PhD students.
To perform such activities the available resources for the project are: 1) up-to-date instrumental seismic catalogue of Azerbaijan and in particular of Absheron peninsula; 2) detailed macro-seismic data, in particular for the 2000 Baku earthquake and for smaller earthquakes; 3) detailed geological settings; 4) previous macro-seismic studies performed by ANAS researchers; 4) digital waveform data of all significant events relevant to focal mechanism and moment tensor analysis; 5) methodological and statistical  know-how in earthquake research.
The deliverables of the project are: 1) Model of the seismic occurrence in the Azerbaijani territory, and, in particular, the Absheron peninsula. 2) Updated seismic hazard map of some selected areas of Absheron peninsula, at a regional and local scale. 3) Earthquake scenarios of the Absheron peninsula. 4) Intermediate and final reports on the performed activities and obtained results. 5) Papers and abstracts submitted to international journals and conferences respectively with the acknowledgement of the CNR-ANAS bilateral agreement.

Research goals

The general objectives of the project are: 1) To start the co-operation between the involved institutions; 2) To share data and methodologies for a better understanding of seismic processes; 3) To acquire co-operation procedures and sharing of data and human resources, to be exploited for a future continuation of joint research/education activities. The specific objectives of the project are: 1) to create a database of seismic data, available for both the involved teams; 2) to develop a model for the occurrence of the earthquakes in Absheron peninsula; 3) to characterize the space-time dynamics of the seismic activity in Absheron peninsula by means of advanced statistical time series tools; 4) to assess an earthquake risk for selected areas or sites in Absheron peninsula; 5) to disseminate preliminary and final results of the project in international conferences, publications; 6) to foster young researchers and PhD students in both the involved institutions.

Last update: 08/07/2025