Characterization of seismicity of Moldova Republic territory. Contribution to seismic hazard assessment

Project leaders

Luciano Telesca, Vasile Alcaz

Agreement

MOLDOVA - ASM-not in force - Academy of Sciences of Moldova

Call

CNR/ASM 2011-2012

Department

Earth and Environment

Thematic area

Earth system science and environmental technologies

Status of the project

New

Research proposal

The Republic of Moldova suffers heavy damage and losses as a consequence of the intermediate depth earthquakes sources located in Vrancea zone, Romania. During the XX century this territory has experienced several strong earthquakes. The most significant seismic events recorded in this period, 1940, 1977, and 1986 resulted in numerous victims and economic losses. So, as the consequence of earthquake from November 10, 1940 the number of damaged buildings in Kishinev (capital of the Republic of Moldova) was 2795, including 172 completely destroyed. The number of victims was at least 78 people and  approximately 1000 wounded (to remark that given data are incomplete). The disaster effect of the last strong earthquake (August, 30, 1986, M=7,0) was represented by 2 deaths, 561 injured persons, 1169 completely destroyed buildings, around 800 millions  $USA direct loss.
The project combines the expertises of the two involved institutions for the study of dynamical properties of Moldavian earthquake processes especially focusing on the study of their fractal,  multifractal and, in general, nonlinear properties, aiming at refining the existing level of understanding of dynamical mechanisms of seismicity, improving the knowledge about the dynamics of earthquakes, and contributing to seismic hazard assessment. These studies were never performed for the Moldavian territory so far.
The project is grounded in earth sciences, but has also a strong methodological component, and the cooperation between the involved Italian and Moldavian institutions offers a real synergistic advantage of exchange of data, statistical/mathematical methodologies and, in general, all the know-how concerning earthquakes. Furthermore, the project will constitute the base of a solid scientific relationship that may be maintained with the joint participation in future projects. Each involved institution has a valuable level of expertise in different aspects of the seismic phenomenon, and the project will constitute a platform to share and combine their knowledge. In particular, the Moldovan team has an on-going investigation that provides appropriate data to work with, in terms of data analysis and hazard formulation, while the Italian team has advanced speciality in statistical analysis and methodological approaches in earthquake research.
In this project the Moldavian team will be essentially devoted to the seismic data storage and to study the seismo-tectonic and geologic settings of the Moldovan areas, which will be particularly investigated in this project, with special emphasis to the Vrancea Region. On the other hand, the Italian team will be more dedicated to analyse the Moldavian earthquake catalogue using advanced and robust statistical methodologies and to characterize the seismic process from a dynamical point of view, by means of well assessed techniques, like fractal, and other novel models, like nonextensive, with clear implications in the context of seismic hazard.
The intended activities include: a) Analysis of the Moldavian seismicity by using space-time clustering methodologies, based on fractals. c) Analysis of the nonextensive properties of the Moldavian seismicity, following the recent findings in terms of magnitude distributions. c) Seismic hazard assessment of the Moldavian territory on the base of the up-to-date seismic recordings, and on the base of the results about the dynamics of earthquakes obtained in the previous activities (a and b) .d) Exchange visits of scientists as required to enhance the collaborative activities and generate research outputs. e) Generation of research outputs. Both ongoing and final research results will be published in international journals and conference proceedings. f) Methodological and technological support for possible PhD students. g) Webpage for the project will be set up at to facilitate coordinating results and enhance visibility of the collaboration.
The deliverables of the project are: 1) Model of the seismic occurrence in the Moldavian territory. 2) Updated seismic hazard map of the whole Moldovan territory. 3) Intermediate and final reports on the performed activities and obtained results. 3) Papers and abstracts submitted to international journals and conferences respectively with the acknowledgement of the CNR-ASM bilateral agreement. 4) Webpage dedicated to the project (description, teams, data, results). 5) A seminar jointly organized focused on the topics of the project.
 

Research goals

The general objectives of the project are: 1) To start the co-operation between the involved institutions; 2) To share data and methodologies for a better understanding of seismic  processes; 3) To acquire co-operation procedures and sharing of data and human resources, to be exploited for a future continuation of joint research/education activities. The specific objectives of the project are: 1) to create a database of Moldovan seismic data, available for both the involved teams; 2) to develop a model for the time occurrences of the earthquakes in Moldova; 3) to characterize the space-time dynamics of the seismic activity in Moldova by means of advanced statistical time series tools; 4) to set up a framework for the assessment of seismic hazard, by means of all the data collected and the results obtained; 5) to disseminate preliminary and final results of the project in international conferences, publications, and in a project-oriented internet website; 6) to foster young researchers and Ph.D students in both the involved institutions.

Last update: 07/06/2025