From population risk perception to social vulnerability in coastal areas subject to climate change: a proposal for risk management strategies in two Mediterranean regions

Project leaders

Loredana Antronico, Anthony Micallef

Agreement

MALTA - UM-exipred - University of Malta

Call

CNR/UoM biennio 2018-2019 2018-2019

Department

Earth system science and environmental technologies

Thematic area

Earth system science and environmental technologies

Status of the project

New

Research proposal

Climate change is having widespread impact on people and the environment. Several literature studies have highlighted that changes in precipitation, temperature, wind and weather systems are increasing the occurrence frequency of natural phenomena such as floods, landslides, heavy storms, droughts, wild fires, etc. with resulting impacts on population, urban settlements and infrastructures. These negative consequences of climate change are particularly present on the coastal areas, which are natural "dynamic zones" since they are deeply exposed to significant changes due to natural processes (sea erosion processes, sea level variations, floods, landslides, etc.).
Because coastal areas have always been attractive sites for the development of human activities, since the second half of the last century a significant increase in human pressure has occurred on coastal stretches, often linked to the increase in tourism demand. For these reasons, roads, urban and industrial sites, and tourist facilities have been built along the coastline. As a result, coastal areas have become particularly susceptible to extreme physical phenomena. Consequently, climate change will cause heightened exposure and vulnerability of the population living in the coastal areas, and of the structures and infrastructures thereby present.
On this basis, the Authorities responsible for risk management ought to make strong efforts to take the necessary measures and actions to reduce the negative impacts of the increasing occurrence frequency of natural phenomena on the coastal areas, which are also due to the climate change. On the other hand, it is necessary to investigate the factors that influence the communities' perception of natural hazard and the climate change. Indeed, in order to effectively manage the negative impacts of extreme natural events both considerable scientific know-how of the phenomena and of people's perception of the risk associated to them is paramount.
The aim of this project is the introduction of an Index of Social Vulnerability, that will be compiled based on the results of an investigation that will inquire into public perception of natural hazards and related climate change through a survey conducted by means of an on-line questionnaire.
Social Vulnerability is made up of two components: a physical/environmental component and another based on the socio-demographic and economic variables of the context. Based on these two components, the degree of community resilience can be evaluated, which includes those intrinsic conditions allowing the system to absorb shocks and cope with an event. The evaluation of people resilience allows to activate adaptation processes that facilitate the ability of the social system to rearrange change and respond to a future threat. By analyzing the relationship between the two dimensions, one should be able to capture the communities' degree of perceived risk of catastrophic events. Consequently, the evaluation of the Index in target areas can contribute to a better definition and implementation of risk management and reduction strategies.
Two Mediterranean regions will be considered as target areas: Calabria (Southern Italy) and Malta. These regions show different geomorphological and climatic settings; however, although with different exposure levels, they are both affected by extreme physical phenomena and climate change.
The Calabria region presents a cost line of about 780 km and shows several areas exposed to a series of natural phenomena such as landslide, flash floods, sea erosion, etc. Moreover, Calabria is potentially vulnerable to climate change. Likewise, the coast of Malta is subject to erosion and mass movements. In particular, the archipelago is characterized by large areas of coastal instability due mainly to active lateral spreading, rock sliding and rockfalls.
The proposal is organized in order to synergistically combine the various skills within the working group. The working group consists of national experts with knowledge and experience on the issues addressed in the Project and this will greatly help in the selection of the target areas and of the development of the Work Packages (WP) in which the project is divided.
The research activities of the Project are organized in the following Work Packages:
WP 1 - "Questionnaire": by means of a joint activity of the two partners, a new questionnaire on the public perception on natural hazard and climate change will be implemented. It will be a unique questionnaire based on the specific extreme natural phenomena present in the two target areas and on the characteristics of climate change registered in these areas. The questionnaire will be administered by means of new technologies and social media. University of Malta has already an extensive experience in designing and conducting surveys using on-line forms.
WP 2 - "SVI": by means of statistical methods, an Index of Social Vulnerability (SVI) will be developed. This Index, ranging between 0 and 1, will be based on the answers to specific questions and on the correlations among some of them. The Index could be a multiplicative factor to the ordinary vulnerability of an area, which in this way can increase/decrease the ordinary vulnerability values.
WP3 - "Application": by means of social technologies and social media, the questionnaire will be administered to a population sample in the target areas of Calabria and Malta. The interpretation of the results and the assessment of Social Vulnerability for each target area will produce the SVI maps which may be used to support policy measures aimed at reducing risk.
WP4 - "Dissemination": the results of this activity will be presented in two public workshops (1 in Calabria, 1 in Malta) where the stakeholders in risk management and reduction (Majors, Civil Protection, Regional and Province administrations, etc.) and the population directly involved in the project will be invited.

Research goals

- Identification of the population's awareness, perception and preparation concerning the effects that climate change has on the environment and especially on coastal areas. In particular, two areas on the coasts of Calabria and Malta affected by extreme physical phenomena and climate change will be chosen. The Survey will be carried out using online questionnaires.

- Assessment of social vulnerability and development of a specific Index of Social Vulnerability in relation to natural hazards in the target areas with the support of digital geospatial data. The results can be used to perform a wider and more thorough risk analysis which takes into account the potential increase in exposure and vulnerability of coastal areas population. In addition, they can be useful for decision support during extreme natural events.

- Offering useful tools that can be easily understood by not only local authorities but, mainly, to those who apply the planning laws and to those responsible for risk prevention and management.

- Dissemination of the results of the study, especially among the involved population in order to raise awareness and interest around the issues linked to the effects of climate change on the increased frequency of extreme natural events. It is well known that risk awareness, and self-protection behavior to be adopted during a calamity improve the resilience of the population living in a dynamic environment.

Last update: 27/04/2024