Preliminary study for the assessment of seismic risk in strategic cities of Georgia

Project leaders

Massimiliano Moscatelli, Nino Tsereteli

Agreement

GEORGIA - SRNSF - Shota Rustaveli National Science Foundation

Call

CNR-SRNSF 2016-2017

Department

Earth system science and environmental technologies

Thematic area

Earth system science and environmental technologies

Status of the project

New

Research proposal

The general purpose of this project is to provide an overall approach for assessing seismic risk at the scale strategic cities of Georgia, with the aim to propose general rules and promote safety improvement of population and infrastructure.
Increase of population in cities causes increase of urbanization and infrastructures, such as buildings, roads, bridges, pipelines, electric power stations, dams and communication systems.
In seismic-prone zones, increase of urbanization and infrastructures in turn produces increase of seismic risk, which is mainly related to: the level of seismic hazard itself (i.e., seismic input related to the expected earthquakes); the seismic resistance of dwelling houses and building constructions; the population density; the probability of initiation of phenomena associated with the earthquake, such as fires or landslides; the vulnerability of governmental offices and strategic lifelines, such as roadways, pipelines, powerlines, sewers, communications, and port facilities.
The goal of society is to create infrastructure that are protected from destructive earthquakes and minimize the expected losses. Anyway, complete elimination of expected losses is unreal. One of the reasons for it is deficiency of knowledge about real seismic hazard and infrastructures' vulnerability.
Also taking into account the inevitable limitations, the proper assessment of seismic risk is of crucial importance for sustainable economic development of cities and for security improvement.
This problem is of current importance in Southern Caucasus (SC). In this regard, the general purpose of this project is to provide a reliable seismic risk assessment for strategic sites of Georgia, which is a crucial component of SC.
The aim of the project is to promote security improvement in this region, through the development of new tools for risk assessment, urban and infrastructure planning, and emergency management, which can be used at both national and transnational level.
Also taking into account the current reality of high vulnerability, the results of the project will allow working out recommendations for a new strategy of urban planning of the selected cities, by proposing specific mitigation actions in districts with high seismic risk, as well as adequate protection of strategic infrastructures in case of earthquake. So, on the base of proper comprehensive research, scenarios of possible earthquakes and their actions on strategic infrastructures will be simulated, in order to prepare new plans to prevent disasters.
The results of the project, also in terms of the new guidelines, will provide useful tools to extend the improvement of security at all strategic settlements of Georgia.

The expected results of the project can be summarized in the following four points:
1 definition of preliminary seismic microzonation maps and analyses of emergency limit condition of Gori;
2 implementation of adequate tools for seismic microzonation and risk assessment at local research institutions;
3 exchange of know-how among researchers on seismic risk assessment, and development of a long-term collaboration in the context of seismic risk prevention at the city scale;
4 publication of recommendations for seismic risk mitigation and emergency limit condition assessment.
The expected results are directed to establish the set of actions aimed at risk mitigation before the initial onset of the emergency, and to the management of emergency once the seismic event has occurred. The products obtained under the project will constitute the basic elements of an integrated system aimed at reducing the risk and improving the overall safety of people and infrastructure in Georgia.

Taking into account the current situation, in Georgia it is necessary to achieve recommendations for a new strategy of urban planning, which will address construction recommendations in districts with high seismic risk, as well as a correct planning and organization of infrastructures. Therefore, on the base of proper comprehensive research, it is necessary to perform activities for mitigation of seismic risks, to simulate scenarios of possible seismic events, and to prepare plans to prevent disasters, and all of these should be considered at the scale of single cities.
At the regional level, a good knowledge of seismic risk has been gained through national and international research projects. With the present proposal, we aim at using a complementary approach to the study of seismic risk in Georgia, through the assessment of local seismic response evaluated at the scale of a strategic city, Gori. Studies conducted at the regional level, in fact, are very important to define the basic seismic hazard, but do not provide any useful operational tool to evaluate the local seismic response and, therefore, to design appropriate interventions for risk mitigation and emergency plans in case of destructive seismic events. In particular with the present proposal we aim to provide a methodology, based on detailed microzonation studies, which quantify site effects, i.e., ground motion amplification effects and soil permanent deformation.
Experience and results gained with this project will be very useful for improving seismic safety and implementing new urban plans in other cities of Georgia.
The participating partners will make available their expertise to the success of the project. The IGTSU team consists of specialists of a high qualification; they have very rich experience and knowledge in the investigation of active structures, seismic hazard and seismic risk assessment. On the other hand, the experience gained over the years by CNR IGAG is a very useful starting point to pursue the aimed goals of the project. In fact, the Italian team has played a key role in the last decade in performing advanced research on the proposed topic and implementing the national regulation on seismic risk assessment.

Research goals

Seismic risk is a crucial issue for South Caucasus, which is the main gateway between Asia and Europe. The political and economic stability of this region is important, both for ensuring its development and prosperity and for guaranteeing the energy supply of Europe. If we take into account the tragic lessons that have been given by periodic earthquake disasters, the seismic risk assessment and reduction should be considered as one of the priorities in this region.
In this regard, this project aims to make a preliminary assessment of the seismic risk for city of Gori (Georgia), and perform emergency limit condition analysis in case of earthquake. The final goal of the project is to propose new methods and criteria for defining an overall approach aimed at assessing and mitigating seismic risk in Georgia.
The relevant specific objectives of this proposal are the following:
1) improve the regional seismic hazard maps, by implementing state-of-the art probabilistic seismic hazard assessment techniques and outputs of the latest projects;
2) perform the locals seismic hazard assessment of Gori, by means of seismic microzonation techniques;
3) evaluate the seismic vulnerability of selected strategic buildings and infrastructures of the selected city;
5) train young Georgian scientists in earthquake-risk related topics by group meetings, workshops, and training seminars;
6) propose new guidelines for seismic risk assessment and mitigation to be used by national end-users.

Last update: 19/04/2024