Sviluppo e applicazione di modelli e metodi statistici per la caratterizzazione di sismogrammi e serie di microtremore sismico misurati in Moldavia: contributo allo sviluppo di un modello crostale per aree della Moldavia caratterizzate da hazard sismico

Responsabili di progetto

Luciano Telesca, Vasile Alcaz

Accordo

MOLDOVA - ASM-not in force - Academy of Sciences of Moldova

Bando

CNR/ASM 2013-2014

Dipartimento

ICT

Area tematica

Ingegneria, ICT e tecnologie per l'energia e i trasporti

Stato del progetto

Nuovo

Proposta di ricerca

In the present project, by using the most recent and robust statistical models and methodologies, we intend to perform two tasks: 1) one related with the analysis of earthquake seismograms recorded by the Moldovan seismometric network; 2) the other one related with the analysis of seismic tremors recorded in several sites within the Moldovan territory.  Both the types of data are very important in the context of development of crustal model of seismically hazardous areas.
Both the tasks will contribute to a better understanding of local soil conditions (to develop a geological and geophysical model of the selected sites), to develop a 1D crustal model for the Moldova territory, to validate such  model with the use of synthetic seismograms computed by the Modal Summation Method (MSM) and compare them with the macro-seismic records, to extend such validated model to all the Moldovan territory for the deterministic seismic hazard analysis, which takes into account several parameters related to the modelling of both the source and the structures interested by the wave-field, like source geometry, fault mechanism, and the local soil characteristics. This will contribute to build up deterministic scenarios for the most vulnerable parts of Moldova territory, by using the recent results on focal mechanism studies (Sandu and Zaicenco, 2008; Sandu et al., 2009).
The project is grounded in earth sciences, but has a strong methodological component, and the cooperation between the involved Italian and Moldovan institutions offers a real synergistic advantage of exchange of data, statistical/mathematical methodologies and, in general, all the know-how concerning the statistical analysis of  earthquakes. Furthermore, the project will constitute the base of a solid scientific relationship that may be maintained with the joint participation in future projects. Each involved institution has a valuable level of expertise in different aspects of the seismic phenomenon, and the project will constitute a platform to share and combine their knowledge. In particular, the Moldovan team has an on-going investigation that provides appropriate data to work with, in terms of data analysis and hazard formulation, while the Italian team has advanced speciality in statistical analysis and methodological approaches in earthquake research.
In this project the Moldovan team will be essentially devoted to the seismogram and seismic microtremor data storage, the synthetic seismogram simulation using the Modal Summation Method (MSM),  the development of a 1D crustal model for the most vulnerable areas in Moldova, the application of the Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA). On the other hand, the Italian team will be more dedicated to analyse the seismograms and seismic microtremor series using advanced and robust statistical methodologies, to identify the soil features in such time series by means of well assessed techniques, like fractal, informational and other novel and nonlinear tools with clear implications in the context of seismic hazard.
The intended activities include: a) Collection of sets of seismograms and seismic microtremors recorded by several stations of the seismic network in Moldova; b) Analysis of seismograms and seismic microtremors by using several time series tools; c) Simulation of synthetic seismograms by means of the MSM; d) Development of geological and geophysical models and seismic scenario for the Moldovan territory; e) Exchange visits of scientists as required to enhance the collaborative activities and generate research outputs; f) Generation of research outputs: both ongoing and final research results will be published in international journals and conference proceedings; g) Methodological and technological support for PhD students and young researchers; h) Webpage for the project to facilitate coordinating results and enhance visibility of the collaboration.
The deliverables of the project are: 1) Database of the seismograms and seismic microtremors available for both the involved teams; 2) DSHA-based maps of the Moldova territory; 3) Intermediate and final reports on the performed activities and obtained results; 4) Papers and abstracts submitted to international journals and conferences respectively with the acknowledgement of the CNR-ASM bilateral agreement; 5) Webpage dedicated to the project (description, teams, data, results); 6) Seminars in Italy and/or Moldova focused on the topics of the project.

Obiettivi della ricerca

The specific objectives of the project are: 1) to create a database of digital seismograms recorded in selected seismic stations installed within the Moldovan territory; 2) to study the influence of the local soil conditions on seismic wave parameters (amplitude, spectral component); 3) to develop a geological and geophysical model of the Moldovan territory; 4) to elaborate strong earthquake scenario for Moldovan territory based on deterministic seismic hazard analysis; 5) to characterize the dynamics of seismic microtremor time series recorded in sites with different soil conditions by using several advanced statistical methods; 6) to disseminate preliminary and final results of the project in international conferences, publications, and in a project-oriented internet website; 7) to foster young researchers and Ph.D students in both the involved institutions 

Ultimo aggiornamento: 30/04/2025