Understanding which is the response of the oceans to climate change and how climate change will influence fisheries and food supply from marine resources, is the aim of a recent study of the Institute of Information Science and Technology 'A. Faedo' (Cnr-Isti) in collaboration with Fao, published on the 'International Journal of Digital Earth'. The scientific paper reports the projections of several environmental parameters (ice concentration, sea and air temperature, salinity, primary production, and precipitation) on 5 years between 1950 and 2100, under different conditions of greenhouse gases emissions. The projections have been calculated by means of the D4Science platform of Cnr-Isti, by analysing more than 200 GB of data and hundreds of time series published by NASA and other sources. The analysis has focussed on ten marine areas to highlight differences and similarities in their response to climate change.
"Our results highlight that the Mediterranean Sea will have a peculiar response - more resistant in some ways - to climate change with respect to the other areas. Further, the Poles will be the most impacted areas (for example, due to the modification of salinity because of ice melting), and the parameters trends are generally alarming also in the medium greenhouse gases emission scenarios", says Gianpaolo Coro, researcher at Cnr-Isti. The fishing industry will be mostly negatively impacted and transformed. "This will be principally due to the migration of many species from the fishing areas of a country to the ones of another country, and in general to the greater unsuitability of several ocean areas for many species of commercial interest", says Coro.
The researchers have represented their results on an interactive timeline, based on the Linked Data technology and developed at Isti-Cnr, which shows the evolution of the environmental parameters through animations: https://dlnarratives.eu/timeline/climate.html"
Cnr - Istituto di scienza e tecnologie dell'informazione 'Alessandro Faedo'
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- Interactive Timeline
- Gianpaolo Coro, Pasquale Pagano & Anton Ellenbroek (2018) Detecting patterns of climate change in long-term forecasts of marine environmental parameters, International Journal of Digital Earth, DOI: 10.1080/17538947.2018.1543365
- Gianpaolo Coro, Chiara Magliozzi, Anton Ellenbroek, Kristin Kaschner & Pasquale Pagano (2016). Automatic classification of climate change effects on marine species distributions in 2050 using the AquaMaps model. Environmental and ecological statistics 23.