16/03/2026
Wildfires, windstorms, and outbreaks of wood-boring insects such as bark beetles are increasingly affecting European forests, altering their structure and reducing the ecosystem services they provide. A new international study published in Science, involving the Institute for Agricultural and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean of the National Research Council of Italy, provides the most comprehensive assessment to date of how forest disturbances in Europe may evolve through 2100 under different climate scenarios
Forests are dynamic systems in which tree mortality is a natural component of ecological processes. However, climate change is amplifying both the frequency and intensity of large-scale disturbances. In recent years, several European regions—particularly in Central and Southern Europe—have experienced unprecedented levels of forest damage associated with extreme weather events, prolonged drought, and insect outbreaks. These trends raise critical questions about the future stability of forest ecosystems and their capacity to continue delivering essential functions such as carbon sequestration, timber production, biodiversity conservation, and climate regulation.
To address this issue, an international research team combined satellite observations collected over more than three decades (1986–2020) with advanced forest ecosystem simulations conducted at 13,000 sites across Europe. The resulting dataset, comprising approximately 135 million simulation data points, was used to train an artificial intelligence–based model capable of projecting forest development and disturbance regimes at a spatial resolution of one hectare. This approach enabled a detailed and spatially explicit assessment of how disturbance risk may evolve under different climate pathways.
The results indicate that forest disturbances are projected to increase under all considered scenarios. Even under moderate warming trajectories, future damage levels are expected to exceed those observed during the reference period, which was already characterized by high disturbance activity between the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Under high-emission scenarios associated with global temperature increases exceeding 4°C by 2100, the forest area affected by disturbances could more than double.
Marked regional differences emerge from the analysis. Southern and Western Europe appear particularly vulnerable, with significant increases in wildfire activity and drought stress—conditions that also favor the spread of damaging insects. Northern Europe is projected to be less severely impacted at the continental scale, although localized hotspots of increasing disturbance risk are expected there as well. These findings suggest that forest disturbances are becoming a systemic issue, with implications for timber markets, carbon balances, and ecosystem resilience.
According to Alessio Collalti, Head of the Forest Modelling Laboratory at Cnr-Isafom in Perugia, “Disturbances are increasingly becoming a determining factor in the carbon balance of European forests. Understanding their future trajectory is essential for designing climate mitigation strategies that realistically account for forest dynamics”. Daniela Dalmonech, researcher at the same laboratory, adds: “Our results highlight the need to integrate disturbance risk into forest policies and management planning. Adaptive strategies aimed at enhancing structural diversity and ecosystem resilience will be crucial in the coming decades”.
The study also emphasizes that, while disturbances represent a significant risk, they may create opportunities for transformation. Post-disturbance regeneration processes can facilitate the establishment of forest stands better adapted to emerging climatic conditions, provided that management interventions are guided by robust scientific knowledge.
“Overall, our research shows that climate change is set to profoundly reshape disturbance regimes in European forests throughout the 21st century. Anticipating these changes through integrated modelling, continuous monitoring, and adaptive management will be essential to safeguard the ecological and socio-economic functions of forests in a rapidly warming world”, concludes Collalti.
Per informazioni:
Alessio Collalti
Cnr-Isafom
alessio.collalti@cnr.it
Ufficio stampa:
Francesca Gorini
Ufficio stampa Cnr
francesca.gorini@cnr.it
Responsabile Unità Ufficio stampa:
Emanuele Guerrini
emanuele.guerrini@cnr.it
ufficiostampa@cnr.it
06 4993 3383
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