Impact of Ocean Observations on THC predictions (Rapporti tecnici/preprint/working paper)

Type
Label
  • Impact of Ocean Observations on THC predictions (Rapporti tecnici/preprint/working paper) (literal)
Anno
  • 2012-01-01T00:00:00+01:00 (literal)
Alternative label
  • Doug Smith, Nick Dunstone, Holger Pohlmann Jürgen Kröger, Jin-Song von Storch Ed Hawkins, Rowan Sutton, Jon Robson Susanna Corti, Yongming Tang, Tim Palmer Mojib Latif Wilco Hazeleger, Bert Wouters (2012)
    Impact of Ocean Observations on THC predictions
    (literal)
Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#autori
  • Doug Smith, Nick Dunstone, Holger Pohlmann Jürgen Kröger, Jin-Song von Storch Ed Hawkins, Rowan Sutton, Jon Robson Susanna Corti, Yongming Tang, Tim Palmer Mojib Latif Wilco Hazeleger, Bert Wouters (literal)
Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#supporto
  • Altro (literal)
Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#affiliazioni
  • UK Met Office MPI Hamburg University of Hamburg Reading University ECMWF KNMI (literal)
Titolo
  • Impact of Ocean Observations on THC predictions (literal)
Abstract
  • Retrospective decadal climate predictions and idealised model experiments have been performed to assess the impact of observations on forecast skill and identify the key observations required. There is mounting evidence that initialisation of climate models with observations leads to improved predictions of multi-decadal variability of north Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) associated with.the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). There is also evidence that initialisation leads to improved predictions of Atlantic tropical storm frequency, and changes in precipitation in the southern USA following the rapid warming of the sub-polar gyre in the mid 1990s. Observations of ocean temperature and salinity in the upper 2000m enable skilful initialisation and prediction of the AMOC in idealised model experiments. Argo floats provide such observations in near real time. The skill is improved with additional spatial sampling provided by Argo floats. Quality controlled Argo observations are therefore likely to form an important component of future initialized decadal predictions. Experiments indicate that initializing water mass characteristics in the subpolar gyre in the Atlantic is essential for skilful prediction of the AMOC. Experiments show improved skill with additional observations below 2000m, especially in the Southern Ocean. Full depth Argo observations would therefore be desirable. Assimilation of atmosphere data improves the skill for the first year. Near real-time atmospheric data are therefore desirable for seamless predictions. Altimeter data are potentially important, but have not been evaluated in THOR. Similarly, there is emerging evidence of links between sea ice and climate over Europe and North America. Observations of sea ice extent and thickness could also be important for predictions. Model-independent synthesis products are needed for verification of decadal predictions. Independent observations do not need to be available in near real time. Long time-series of direct observations of the AMOC strength and transport and water mass characteristics at key sections and passages would be the most useful. As such, continuation of the RAPID array would be highly desirable. Additional observations at other latitudes, especially the sub-polar gyre as proposed by OSNAP, in the overflow regions, and in the South Atlantic (30S), would also be very valuable. (literal)
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