Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche

Tipo di prodottoArticolo in rivista
TitoloEffect of Daily Forecasting Frequency on Rolling-Horizon-Based EMS Reducing Electrical Demand Uncertainty in Microgrids
Anno di pubblicazione2021
Autore/iG. La Tona; M. C. Di Piazza; M. Luna
Affiliazioni autoriCNR - INM
Autori CNR e affiliazioni
  • inglese
AbstractAccurate forecasting is a crucial task for energy management systems (EMSs) used in microgrids. Despite forecasting models destined to EMSs having been largely investigated, the analysis of criteria for the practical execution of this task, in the framework of an energy management algorithm, has not been properly investigated yet. On such a basis, this paper aims at exploring the effect of daily forecasting frequency on the performance of rolling-horizon EMSs devised to reduce demand uncertainty in microgrids by adhering to a reference planned profile. Specifically, the performance of a sample EMS, where the forecasting task is committed to a nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) artificial neural network (ANN), has been studied under different daily forecasting frequencies, revealing a representative trend relating the forecasting execution frequency in the EMS and the reduction of uncertainty in the electrical demand. On the basis of such a trend, it is possible to establish how often is convenient to repeat the forecasting task for obtaining increasing performance of the EMS. The obtained results have been generalized by extending the analysis to different test scenarios, whose results have been found coherent with the identified trend.
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Pagine da1
Pagine a16
Pagine totali16
RivistaEnergies (Basel)
Attiva dal 2008
Editore: Molecular Diversity Preservation International - Basel
Lingua: inglese
ISSN: 1996-1073
Titolo chiave: Energies (Basel)
Titolo proprio: Energies (Basel)
Titolo abbreviato: Energies (Basel)
Numero volume della rivista14
Fascicolo della rivista6
Verificato da refereeSì: Internazionale
Stato della pubblicazionePublished version
Indicizzazione (in banche dati controllate)
  • ISI Web of Science (WOS) (Codice:WOS:000634423200001)
  • Scopus (Codice:2-s2.0-85106449782)
Parole chiaveenergy management system, forecasting error, rolling horizon, demand uncertainty, microgrid
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Note/Altre informazioniOPEN ACCESS: © 2021 by the authors.Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (
Strutture CNR
  • INM — Istituto di iNgegneria del Mare
Moduli/Attività/Sottoprogetti CNR
  • DIT.AD017.001.001 : Energy conversion and management
Progetti Europei-