Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche

Tipo di prodottoArticolo in rivista
TitoloRainfall Threshold for Shallow Landslides Initiation and Analysis of Long-Term Rainfall Trends in a Mediterranean Area
Anno di pubblicazione2020
Autore/iAnna Roccati, Guido Paliaga, Fabio Luino, Francesco Faccini, Laura Turconi
Affiliazioni autoriCNR IRPI
Autori CNR e affiliazioni
  • inglese
AbstractThe effects of climate change on landslide activity may have important environmental, socio-economic, and political consequences. In the last decades, several short-term extreme rainfall events affected Mediterranean regions, resulted in damaging geo-hydrological processes and casualties. It is unequivocal that the impact of landslides in several Mediterranean countries is increasing with time, but until now, there has been little or no quantitative data to support these increases. In this paper, both rainfall conditions for the occurrence of shallow landslides and rainfall trends were investigated in the Portofino promontory, which extends in the Ligurian Sea, where heavy rainfall and related ground effects often occur. Adopting a frequentist approach, the empirical intensity-duration threshold was estimated. Our findings highlight that the rainfall intensity required to trigger landslides is lower for the same duration than those expected in other similar environments, suggesting a high susceptibility to rainfall-induced landslides in the Portofino territory. Further, the Mann-Kendall test and Hurst exponent were used for detecting potential trends. Analysis of long-term rainfall time series showed statistically significant increasing trends in short duration precipitation occurrence and rainfall rates, suggesting a possible future scenario with a more frequent exceedance of the threshold triggering value and an increase of landslide risk.
Lingua abstractinglese
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RivistaAtmosphere (Basel)
Attiva dal 2010
Editore: Molecular Diversity Preservation International - Basel
Lingua: inglese
ISSN: 2073-4433
Titolo chiave: Atmosphere (Basel)
Titolo proprio: Atmosphere. (Basel)
Titolo abbreviato: Atmosphere (Basel)
Titolo alternativo: Atmosphere: an international and interdisciplinary scientific open access journal (Basel)
Numero volume della rivista11(12), 1367
Fascicolo della rivista12
Verificato da refereeSì: Internazionale
Stato della pubblicazionePublished version
Indicizzazione (in banche dati controllate)-
Parole chiaveshallow landslides, rainfall thresholds, rainfall trend, Mann-Kendall test, Hurst exponent, Portofino promontory, Liguria
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Strutture CNR
  • IRPI — Istituto di ricerca per la protezione idrogeologica
Moduli/Attività/Sottoprogetti CNR
  • DTA.AD003.339.001 : RECONECT -Regenarating ECOsystems with Nature-based solutions for hydro-meteorological risk rEduCTion
Progetti Europei
settings Open AccessArticle Rainfall Threshold for Shallow Landslides Initiation and Analysis of Long-Term Rainfall Trends in a Mediterranean Area (documento privato )
Descrizione: Paper
Tipo documento: application/pdf