Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche

Tipo di prodottoArticolo in rivista
TitoloImpact of Climate Change on Flood Frequency Using Different Climate Models and Downscaling Approaches
Anno di pubblicazione2014
Autore/iCamici, S.; Brocca, L.; Melone, F.; Moramarco, T.
Affiliazioni autoriConsiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR)
Autori CNR e affiliazioni
AbstractThe analysis of the climate change impact on flood frequency represents an important issue for water resources management and flood risk mitigation. However, for small/medium catchments (< 1,000 km(2)), the spatial-temporal resolution of global circulation models (GCMs) output is not adequate (> 40,000 km(2)) and downscaling procedures are required. In this paper, two different GCMs selected among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 models, the Hadley Center Coupled Model, the Parallel Climate Model, and two statistical downscaling approaches, (1) delta change, and (2) quantile mapping, are compared. For the generation of long hourly time series of rainfall, temperature, and discharge, stochastic weather generators coupled with a continuous rainfall-runoff model are employed. Therefore, the frequency of annual maxima rainfall and discharge is projected for the future period 2070-2099 over three small subcatchments in the Upper Tiber River Basin, central Italy. Results reveal that both the GCMs and downscaling methods play a significant role in the determination of the climate change impact for future scenarios, mainly in terms of annual maxima values. By comparing the future (2070-2099) with the baseline period (1961-1990), all GCMs project a decrease of mean annual rainfall (similar to 30%) and an increase of mean annual temperature (similar to 40%). However, in terms of annual maxima (of rainfall and discharge) the results are found to be dependent on the selected GCM and downscaling method. On one hand, through the application of the delta change method, both GCMs project a decrease in the flood frequency curves. On the other hand, if the quantile mapping downscaling method is considered, the Hadley Center Coupled Model 3 projects a decrease in the frequency of annual maxima discharge; the opposite occurs for the Parallel Climate Model. The hydrological characteristics of the study catchments play an important role in the assessment of the climate change impacts. For that, the need to use ensemble GCM results and multiple downscaling methods is underlined. (C) 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
Lingua abstract-
Altro abstract-
Lingua altro abstract-
Pagine da-
Pagine a-
Pagine totali15
RivistaJournal of hydrologic engineering
Attiva dal 1996
Editore: The Society, - New York, NY
Paese di pubblicazione: Stati Uniti d'America
Lingua: inglese
ISSN: 1084-0699
Titolo chiave: Journal of hydrologic engineering
Titolo proprio: Journal of hydrologic engineering
Titolo abbreviato: J. hydrol. eng.
Titoli alternativi:
  • Hydrologic engineering
  • ASCE journal of hydrologic engineering
Numero volume della rivista19
Fascicolo della rivista8
Verificato da referee-
Stato della pubblicazione-
Indicizzazione (in banche dati controllate)
  • ISI Web of Science (WOS) (Codice:000340165100007)
Parole chiaveClimate changing, Flood frequency, Downscaling method, Global circulation model (GCM), Weather generator
Link (URL, URI)-
Titolo parallelo-
Scadenza embargo-
Data di accettazione-
Note/Altre informazioni-
Strutture CNR
  • IRPI — Istituto di ricerca per la protezione idrogeologica
Moduli/Attività/Sottoprogetti CNR-
Progetti Europei-