Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche

Tipo di prodottoArticolo in rivista
TitoloA predictive model of societal landslide risk in Italy
Anno di pubblicazione2019
FormatoElettronico
Autore/iMauro Rossi, Fausto Guzzetti?, Paola Salvati, Marco Donnini, Elisabetta Napolitano, Cinzia Bianchi
Affiliazioni autoriCNR IRPI
Autori CNR e affiliazioni
  • ELISABETTA NAPOLITANO
  • MAURO ROSSI
  • PAOLA SALVATI
  • CINZIA BIANCHI
  • MARCO DONNINI
  • FAUSTO GUZZETTI
Lingua/e
  • inglese
AbstractWe propose a novel approach to evaluate the spatial and the temporal distribution of societal landslide risk from historical, sparse, point information on fatal landslides and their direct human consequences. We test the ap- proach using a record of 5571 fatalities caused by 1017 landslides at 958 sites across Italy, in the 155-year period 1861-2015. Adopting a Zipf distribution, we model societal landslide risk for the whole of Italy, and for seven physiographic and 20 administrative subdivisions of Italy. Results confirm that the Zipf distribution is adequate to describe the frequency (and the probability) of fatal landslides, and show that societal landslide risk varies in Italy depending on the largest magnitude landslide F, the number of fatal events E, and the scaling exponent of the Zipf distribution s, which controls the relative proportion of low vs. large magnitude landslides. To model societal landslide risk, we then test different grid spacings, g and circular kernel sizes, r finally adopting g = 10 km and r = 55 km. Using such geometrical constraints, we prepare maps of the variables F, E and s, revealing the complexity of landslide risk in Italy, which cannot be described properly with a single metric. For each grid cell, we assign the {F, E, s} variables to the red, green and blue bands of a composite image to obtain a single view of landslide risk to the population of Italy. Next, we prepare risk scenarios for landslides of increasing magnitudes, which we validate checking the anticipated return period of the fatal events against information on 130 fatal landslides between 1000 and 1860, and eleven fatal landslides between January 2016 and August 2018. Despite incompleteness in the old part of the record for the low magnitude landslides, and the short length and limited number of events in the recent period 2016-2018, the anticipated return periods are in good agreement with the occurrence of fatal landslides in both validation periods. Despite the known difficulty in modelling sparse datasets, the approach provided a coherent and realistic representation of societal landslide risk in Italy. Our results give new insight on the spatial and temporal variations of societal landslide risk in Italy. We expect this to contribute to improve existing zonings of landslide risk in Italy; to foster the efficacy of national and regional landslide early warning systems; and to design and implement better landslide commu- nication, mitigation and adaptation strategies. Our approach is general and not constrained to the information on fatal landslides available for Italy. We therefore expect the approach to be used to model societal landslide risk in other geographical areas for which adequate information is available, and to model the fatal consequences of other hazards.
Lingua abstractinglese
Altro abstract-
Lingua altro abstract-
Pagine da-
Pagine a-
Pagine totali19
RivistaEarth-science reviews
Attiva dal 1966
Editore: Elsevier - Oxford ;
Paese di pubblicazione: Paesi Bassi
Lingua: inglese
ISSN: 0012-8252
Titolo chiave: Earth-science reviews
Titolo proprio: Earth-science reviews.
Titolo abbreviato: Earth-sci. rev.
Numero volume della rivista196
Fascicolo della rivista-
DOI10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.04.021
Verificato da refereeSì: Internazionale
Stato della pubblicazionePublished version
Indicizzazione (in banche dati controllate)-
Parole chiaveLandslide, Fatalities, Societal risk, Sparse data, Point model, Italy
Link (URL, URI)https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S0012825218306056?token=F7DDBF6D00DB737606F0CA515C95C60EED5B9F59367B29AB6786E7B7806C7F7F9CFA9945530B6C00E23912BED6CBAB6B
Titolo parallelo-
Data di accettazione13/04/2019
Note/Altre informazioni-
Strutture CNR
  • IRPI — Istituto di ricerca per la protezione idrogeologica
Moduli/Attività/Sottoprogetti CNR-
Progetti Europei-
Allegati