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Istituto sull'inquinamento atmosferico

Torna all'elenco Contributi in rivista anno 2017

Contributo in rivista

Tipo: Articolo in rivista

Titolo: Evidence for the role of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the ocean heat uptake in hiatus prediction

Anno di pubblicazione: 2017

Formato: Elettronico Cartaceo

Autori: Pasini, Antonello; Triacca, Umberto; Attanasio, Alessandro

Affiliazioni autori: Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche; Universita degli Studi dell'Aquila

Autori CNR:

  • ANTONELLO PASINI

Lingua: inglese

Abstract: The recent hiatus in global temperature at the surface has been analysed by several studies, mainly using global climate models. The common accepted picture is that since the late 1990s, the increase in anthropogenic radiative forcings has been counterbalanced by other factors, e.g., a decrease in natural forcings, augmented ocean heat storage and negative phases of ocean-atmosphere-coupled oscillation patterns. Here, simple vector autoregressive models are used for forecasting the temperature hiatus in the period 2001-2014. This gives new insight into the problem of understanding the ocean contribution (in terms of heat uptake and atmosphere-ocean-coupled oscillations) to the appearance of this recent hiatus. In particular, considering data about the ocean heat content until a depth of 700 m and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation is necessary for correctly forecasting the hiatus, so catching both trend and interannual variability. Our models also show that the ocean heat uptake is substantially driven by the natural component of the total radiative forcing at a decadal time scale, confining the importance of the anthropogenic influences to a longer range warming of the ocean.

Lingua abstract: inglese

Pagine da: 873

Pagine a: 880

Rivista:

Theoretical and applied climatology Springer
Paese di pubblicazione: Austria
Lingua: multilingue
ISSN: 0177-798X

Numero volume: 129

DOI: 10.1007/s00704-016-1818-6

Referee: Sė: Internazionale

Stato della pubblicazione: Published version

Indicizzato da: Scopus [2-s2.0-84965007430]

Parole chiave:

  • Hiatus
  • AMO
  • Ocean uptake

URL: http://www.scopus.com/record/display.url?eid=2-s2.0-84965007430&origin=inward

Data di accettazione: 17/04/2016

Strutture CNR:

 
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