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Istituto sull'inquinamento atmosferico

Torna all'elenco Contributi in rivista anno 2015

Contributo in rivista

Tipo: Articolo in rivista

Titolo: On the role of sulfates in recent global warming: a Granger causality analysis

Anno di pubblicazione: 2015

Formato: Elettronico Cartaceo

Autori: Pasini A., Triacca U., Attanasio A.

Affiliazioni autori: CNR, Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research University of L'Aquila

Autori CNR:

  • ANTONELLO PASINI

Lingua: inglese

Abstract: Attribution studies clearly show that the recent global warming is mainly linked with changes in atmospheric composition induced by human activities, especially by emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Even if the increasing trend in temperatures is well caught by global climate models (GCMs), some periods of quasi-constant temperature behaviour are not completely understood. In this article we focus on the role of sulfates and apply an inferential method (Granger causality analysis) in order to analyse in detail their role in changes of global temperature. Starting from the identification of two sub-periods (1943-1975 and 1976-2011) characterized by a quasi-constant plateau and a steep increase in temperature, respectively, we find that in the first period the cooling induced by sulfates is able to balance the warming effect of GHGs. This does not happen in the second period, when GHG forcing probably overwhelms the other causal factor here considered. In any case there exists a strong evidence of a joint driving of temperature by these two forcings. This allows us to identify sulfates as a major driver of the quasi-stationary period 1943-1975.

Lingua abstract: inglese

Pagine da: 3701

Pagine a: 3706

Rivista:

International journal of climatology Wiley,
Paese di pubblicazione: Regno Unito
Lingua: inglese
ISSN: 0899-8418

Numero volume: 35

DOI: 10.1002/joc.4222

Referee: Sė: Internazionale

Stato della pubblicazione: Published version

Parole chiave:

  • sulfates
  • global temperature
  • radiative forcing
  • Granger causality

URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4222/full

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