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Istituto sull'inquinamento atmosferico

Torna all'elenco Contributi in rivista anno 2014

Contributo in rivista

Tipo: Articolo in rivista

Titolo: Clarifying the roles of greenhouse gases and ENSO in recent global warming through their prediction performance

Anno di pubblicazione: 2014

Formato: Cartaceo

Autori: Triacca U.; Pasini A.; Attanasio A.; Giovannelli A.; Lippi M.

Affiliazioni autori: Department of Computer Engineering, Computer Science and Mathematics, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy; National Research Council (CNR), Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research, Monterotondo Stazione, Rome, Italy; Department of Economics and Finance, University of Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy; Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance, Rome, Italy

Autori CNR:


Lingua: inglese

Abstract: It is well known that natural external forcings and decadal-to-millennial variability drove changes in the climate system throughout the Holocene. Regarding recent times, attribution studies have shown that greenhouse gases (GHGs) determined the trend of temperature (T) in the last half century, while circulation patterns contributed to modify its interannual, decadal, or multidecadal behavior over this period. Here temperature predictions based on vector autoregressive models (VARs) have been used to study the influence of GHGs and El Niņo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on recent temperature behavior. It is found that in the last decades of steep temperature increase, ENSO shows just a very short-range influence on T, while GHGs are dominant for each forecast horizon. Conversely and quite surprisingly, in the previous quasi-stationary period the influences of GHGs and ENSO are comparable, even at longer range. Therefore, if the recent hiatus in global temperatures should persist into the near future, an enhancement of the role of ENSO can be expected. Finally, the predictive ability of GHGs is more evident in the Southern Hemisphere, where the temperature series is smoother.

Lingua abstract: inglese

Pagine da: 7903

Pagine a: 7910


Journal of climate American Meteorological Society,
Paese di pubblicazione: Stati Uniti d'America
Lingua: inglese
ISSN: 0894-8755

Numero volume: 27

Numero fascicolo: 20

DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00784.1

Indicizzato da: Scopus [2-s2.0-84907821756]

URL: http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84907821756&partnerID=q2rCbXpz

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